x402-factory

Live probability: Will the Fed chair change this year? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Will the Fed chair change this year? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.

Live probability: Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.

Only the materially-moved markets in the segment changed since your cursor (delt — Keyset delta of /v1/board/:category: pass since=<next_cursor from your last call> and get only the materially-moved markets in the segment added or changed after it, plus changed_count and a new next_cursor. Omit since once to bootstrap. Cursors are stable across restarts. Poll the free sibling…

Only the filings of the watched form changed since your cursor (delta of /v1/edg — Keyset delta of /v1/edgar/watch/:form: pass since=<next_cursor from your last call> and get only the filings of the watched form added or changed after it, plus changed_count and a new next_cursor. Omit since once to bootstrap. Cursors are stable across restarts. Poll the free sibling /v1/edgar/watch/:form/changes…

Normalized insider transactions (Form 4) with flow aggregates for a ticker — SEC Form 4 filings parsed into clean insider transactions: buy/sell/award classification, 10b5-1 plan flags, per-filer roles, and aggregate net flow with notable-pattern flags. Use it to gauge insider conviction before events.

Latest results of operations 8-K events as structured JSON — Latest 8-K filings classified as results of operations (Item 2.02) across covered companies, parsed into structured JSON with extractive summaries and filing links. Same shape as /v1/edgar/events, pre-filtered to Item 2.02 events.

Latest other material event 8-K events as structured JSON — Latest 8-K filings classified as other material event (Item 8.01) across covered companies, parsed into structured JSON with extractive summaries and filing links. Same shape as /v1/edgar/events, pre-filtered to Item 8.01 events.

Historical performance of the edge signal: hit rate, calibration, by hazard — Aggregates stored edge signals whose markets have resolved: how often the model beat the market (hit rate), average absolute-error improvement (edge captured), a model calibration curve, and per-hazard breakdowns. model_label is explicit about which model produced the signals.

Unemployment rate (BLS, monthly): latest print, revisions, surprise — Latest Unemployment rate print from the BLS via FRED/ALFRED: first-release vs latest value with a revised flag (revisions never pose as print-day numbers), surprise vs a labeled expectation (market-implied when a matching prediction market exists, else trend-model), next monthly release date, and a 12-observation mini-series.…

2-year Treasury yield (Fed, daily): latest print, revisions, surprise — Latest 2-year Treasury yield print from the Fed via FRED/ALFRED: first-release vs latest value with a revised flag (revisions never pose as print-day numbers), surprise vs a labeled expectation (market-implied when a matching prediction market exists, else trend-model), next daily release date, and a 12-observation…

10-year Treasury yield (Fed, daily): latest print, revisions, surprise — Latest 10-year Treasury yield print from the Fed via FRED/ALFRED: first-release vs latest value with a revised flag (revisions never pose as print-day numbers), surprise vs a labeled expectation (market-implied when a matching prediction market exists, else trend-model), next daily release date, and a 12-observation…

Advance retail sales (Census, monthly): latest print, revisions, surprise — Latest Advance retail sales print from the Census via FRED/ALFRED: first-release vs latest value with a revised flag (revisions never pose as print-day numbers), surprise vs a labeled expectation (market-implied when a matching prediction market exists, else trend-model), next monthly release date, and a 12-observation…

PCE inflation (BEA, monthly): latest print, revisions, surprise — Latest PCE inflation print from the BEA via FRED/ALFRED: first-release vs latest value with a revised flag (revisions never pose as print-day numbers), surprise vs a labeled expectation (market-implied when a matching prediction market exists, else trend-model), next monthly release date, and a 12-observation mini-series. Same…

Nonfarm payrolls (BLS, monthly): latest print, revisions, surprise — Latest Nonfarm payrolls print from the BLS via FRED/ALFRED: first-release vs latest value with a revised flag (revisions never pose as print-day numbers), surprise vs a labeled expectation (market-implied when a matching prediction market exists, else trend-model), next monthly release date, and a 12-observation mini-series.…

Initial jobless claims (DOL, weekly): latest print, revisions, surprise — Latest Initial jobless claims print from the DOL via FRED/ALFRED: first-release vs latest value with a revised flag (revisions never pose as print-day numbers), surprise vs a labeled expectation (market-implied when a matching prediction market exists, else trend-model), next weekly release date, and a 12-observation…

Core PCE inflation (BEA, monthly): latest print, revisions, surprise — Latest Core PCE inflation print from the BEA via FRED/ALFRED: first-release vs latest value with a revised flag (revisions never pose as print-day numbers), surprise vs a labeled expectation (market-implied when a matching prediction market exists, else trend-model), next monthly release date, and a 12-observation…

Core CPI inflation (BLS, monthly): latest print, revisions, surprise — Latest Core CPI inflation print from the BLS via FRED/ALFRED: first-release vs latest value with a revised flag (revisions never pose as print-day numbers), surprise vs a labeled expectation (market-implied when a matching prediction market exists, else trend-model), next monthly release date, and a 12-observation…

Building permits (Census, monthly): latest print, revisions, surprise — Latest Building permits print from the Census via FRED/ALFRED: first-release vs latest value with a revised flag (revisions never pose as print-day numbers), surprise vs a labeled expectation (market-implied when a matching prediction market exists, else trend-model), next monthly release date, and a 12-observation…

Find prediction markets by free-text query; returns slugs for other endpoints — Full-text search over the canonical market catalog (Postgres FTS + trigram in live mode). Returns slugs, blended probabilities, and match confidence. Empty result sets return 200 with a suggestion listing valid categories.

Upcoming NFL football event resolutions — Upcoming NFL football market resolutions in date order with current blended probabilities — the forward calendar of NFL football events an agent can position around. Same shape as /v1/calendar, pre-filtered to NFL football markets.

Will it rain in Minneapolis during your event window — Event-window weather odds for Minneapolis: pass a start and end time (or omit them for the next six hours) and get rain probability and expected conditions across the window — built for scheduling decisions. Same shape as /v1/forecast/window with the Minneapolis coordinates built in.

Will it rain in New York City during your event window — Event-window weather odds for New York City: pass a start and end time (or omit them for the next six hours) and get rain probability and expected conditions across the window — built for scheduling decisions. Same shape as /v1/forecast/window with the New York City coordinates built in.

Will it rain in Phoenix during your event window — Event-window weather odds for Phoenix: pass a start and end time (or omit them for the next six hours) and get rain probability and expected conditions across the window — built for scheduling decisions. Same shape as /v1/forecast/window with the Phoenix coordinates built in.

Will it rain in San Antonio during your event window — Event-window weather odds for San Antonio: pass a start and end time (or omit them for the next six hours) and get rain probability and expected conditions across the window — built for scheduling decisions. Same shape as /v1/forecast/window with the San Antonio coordinates built in.

Active and forecast flood risk (NWS + model) — Active NWS alerts filtered to flood hazards for any US point, with model-based risk context. Same shape as /v1/alerts/severe with the hazard class fixed to flood.

Hourly Atlanta weather forecast (blend model, method labeled) — Hourly weather forecast for Atlanta: temperature, precipitation probability, and wind, up to 168 hours out. NWS-derived series, bias-blended with our calibrated station model where covered — every response labels the method that produced it. Same shape as /v1/forecast/point with the Atlanta coordinates built in.

Upcoming market resolutions in the next N days with current probabilities — Active markets resolving inside the horizon, sorted by resolution date with the current blended probability. An agent's event calendar: what settles soon and where it stands.

Hourly Boston weather forecast (blend model, method labeled) — Hourly weather forecast for Boston: temperature, precipitation probability, and wind, up to 168 hours out. NWS-derived series, bias-blended with our calibrated station model where covered — every response labels the method that produced it. Same shape as /v1/forecast/point with the Boston coordinates built in.

Hourly Austin weather forecast (blend model, method labeled) — Hourly weather forecast for Austin: temperature, precipitation probability, and wind, up to 168 hours out. NWS-derived series, bias-blended with our calibrated station model where covered — every response labels the method that produced it. Same shape as /v1/forecast/point with the Austin coordinates built in.

Hourly Detroit weather forecast (blend model, method labeled) — Hourly weather forecast for Detroit: temperature, precipitation probability, and wind, up to 168 hours out. NWS-derived series, bias-blended with our calibrated station model where covered — every response labels the method that produced it. Same shape as /v1/forecast/point with the Detroit coordinates built in.