Econsignal Recession Signals

{
  "historical_analog": "2002-2003 (tech bust + structural reform period) — 3 quarters of contraction followed by slow recovery",
  "indicator_dashboard": {
    "consumer_confidence_gfk": -21.3,
    "gdp_trend": "Two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2023; shallow recovery 2024",
    "ifo_business_climate": 86.5,
    "pmi_manufacturing": 43.2,
    "pmi_services": 51.1,
    "unemployment_trend": "Rising — 5.7% vs 5.0% trough; Kurzarbeit uptake increasing",
    "yield_curve": "Inverted — 10yr/2yr spread -45bps; historically 70% accurate 12-month signal"
  },
  "monitoring_triggers": [
    "PMI manufacturing sustained below 45 for 3+ months",
    "Unemployment above 6%",
    "DAX -15% from peak",
    "Energy prices spiking above €100/MWh"
  ],
  "query_summary": {
    "country": "Germany",
    "horizon": "12 months",
    "iso2": "DE",
    "iso3": "DEU"
  },
  "recession_probability": {
    "confidence": "Medium-High",
    "label": "Elevated risk",
    "pct": 62
  },
  "structural_context": {
    "automotive_disruption": "EV transition eroding German auto sector advantage; China competition intensifying",
    "china_exposure": "7.3% of German exports to China — slowing Chinese economy is direct headwind",
    "energy_shock_legacy": "German industry permanently lost ~15% cost competitiveness post-2022 energy crisis",
    "fiscal_position": "Debt brake limits stimulus capacity; constitutional constraint on deficit spending"
  }
}

# bash or zsh: see the payment challenge. Nothing is charged.
curl -sS -g -i 'https://econsignalpulse.theaslangroupllc.com/api/econsignal/recession-signals?lang=en'

# x402 v2 sends the challenge base64-encoded in the PAYMENT-REQUIRED header (v1 sends it in the body).
# To read the header:
curl -sS -g -o /dev/null -D - 'https://econsignalpulse.theaslangroupllc.com/api/econsignal/recession-signals?lang=en' \
  | grep -i '^payment-required:' | cut -d' ' -f2 | tr -d '\r' | base64 --decode

// npm i @x402/fetch @x402/evm viem
import { wrapFetchWithPayment, x402Client } from "@x402/fetch";
import { registerExactEvmScheme } from "@x402/evm/exact/client";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";

// Pays at most $0.15 per call.
const client = new x402Client().setSpendControls({ maxAmountPerPayment: "$0.15" });
registerExactEvmScheme(client, { signer: privateKeyToAccount(process.env.EVM_PRIVATE_KEY) });
const pay = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, client);

// Not sure it's safe to pay? ToolVet checks it first for $0.005. Pay for that from a separate
// client: this one is capped at $0.15 per payment. GET https://toolvet.app/api/v1/check?url=https%3A%2F%2Feconsignalpulse.theaslangroupllc.com%2Fapi%2Feconsignal%2Frecession-signals
const res = await pay("https://econsignalpulse.theaslangroupllc.com/api/econsignal/recession-signals?lang=en");
console.log(res.status, await res.text());

# pip install "x402[requests,evm]"
import os
from eth_account import Account
from x402 import x402ClientSync
from x402.http.clients import x402_requests
from x402.mechanisms.evm import EthAccountSigner
from x402.mechanisms.evm.exact.register import register_exact_evm_client

# Pays at most $0.15 per call.
client = x402ClientSync().set_spend_controls({"max_amount_per_payment": "$0.15"})
register_exact_evm_client(client, EthAccountSigner(Account.from_key(os.environ["EVM_PRIVATE_KEY"])))

with x402_requests(client) as session:
    res = session.get("https://econsignalpulse.theaslangroupllc.com/api/econsignal/recession-signals?lang=en")
    print(res.status_code, res.text)