Gamblers Ruin
by Probability Calculators in Markets & finance
Gambler's ruin: probability of going broke before hitting a target, and expected number of bets, for repeated unit bets.
https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin- Price
- $0.02
- per call in USDC
- Uptime
- 66.7%
- last 30 days
- Response time
- 536 ms
- 871 ms slowest 5%
- Last check
- Passed
- 10 h ago, next any minute now
Reliability
Status and outage history · Atom feed · Watch with other listings
How to call it
GET https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin
Each call costs $0.02 in USDC on Polygon, paid with the request over x402.
Run a free test callOne unpaid request, the way an agent sends it. You see the payment challenge it gets back. Nothing is charged.
Example request
From the listing.
GET https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin?bankroll=100&p=0.473684&target=200Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
bankroll | integer | Yes | Starting units, 1 to 1000000 |
p | number | Yes | Probability of winning each bet, 0 to 1 (roulette red/black on a double-zero wheel 18/38 = 0.473684) |
target | integer | No | Stop when you reach this many units (omit to play until ruin) |
Example response
The provider's example. We can't check it without paying.
{
"asOf": "2026-10-11T14:44:18.160Z",
"bankroll": 100,
"degraded": false,
"disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
"expectedBets": 1899.8838788165003,
"lossProbability": 0.526316,
"notChecked": [
"bets of different sizes, betting systems, and table limits (the walk is one unit up or down per bet)",
"ties or pushes",
"…2 more"
],
"ratioQOverP": 1.111112049383133,
"reasons": [
"With a target N, ruin = ((q/p)^i - (q/p)^N) / (1 - (q/p)^N), and 1 - i/N when the game is fair.",
"A game with a house edge makes a larger target MORE likely to end in ruin, not less."
],
"ruinProbability": 0.9999734415493503,
"source": "computed locally (Feller, gambler's ruin)",
"successProbability": 0.000026558450649694088,
"summary": "Win chance 0.473684 per bet, bankroll 100, target 200: probability of ruin 99.9973%, reaching the target 0.0027%, expected 1,899.9 bets.",
"target": 200,
"verdict": "UNFAVOURABLE",
"winProbability": 0.473684
}Call it from code
The curl command shows the payment challenge. The JavaScript and Python versions pay and call, and never pay more than $0.02.
curl: see the payment challenge
# bash or zsh: see the payment challenge. Nothing is charged.
curl -sS -g -i 'https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin?bankroll=100&p=0.473684&target=200'
# x402 v2 sends the challenge base64-encoded in the PAYMENT-REQUIRED header (v1 sends it in the body).
# To read the header:
curl -sS -g -o /dev/null -D - 'https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin?bankroll=100&p=0.473684&target=200' \
| grep -i '^payment-required:' | cut -d' ' -f2 | tr -d '\r' | base64 --decodeJavaScript: pay and call
// npm i @x402/fetch @x402/evm viem
import { wrapFetchWithPayment, x402Client } from "@x402/fetch";
import { registerExactEvmScheme } from "@x402/evm/exact/client";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";
// Pays at most $0.02 per call.
const client = new x402Client().setSpendControls({ maxAmountPerPayment: "$0.02" });
registerExactEvmScheme(client, { signer: privateKeyToAccount(process.env.EVM_PRIVATE_KEY) });
const pay = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, client);
// Not sure it's safe to pay? ToolVet checks it first for $0.005. Pay for that from a separate
// client: this one is capped at $0.02 per payment. GET https://toolvet.app/api/v1/check?url=https%3A%2F%2Fprobability-calc.x402tookit.com%2Fgamblers-ruin
const res = await pay("https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin?bankroll=100&p=0.473684&target=200");
console.log(res.status, await res.text());Python: pay and call
# pip install "x402[requests,evm]"
import os
from eth_account import Account
from x402 import x402ClientSync
from x402.http.clients import x402_requests
from x402.mechanisms.evm import EthAccountSigner
from x402.mechanisms.evm.exact.register import register_exact_evm_client
# Pays at most $0.02 per call.
client = x402ClientSync().set_spend_controls({"max_amount_per_payment": "$0.02"})
register_exact_evm_client(client, EthAccountSigner(Account.from_key(os.environ["EVM_PRIVATE_KEY"])))
with x402_requests(client) as session:
res = session.get("https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin?bankroll=100&p=0.473684&target=200")
print(res.status_code, res.text)Security scan
No findings
We scan names, descriptions and tool definitions for hidden instructions and other prompt-injection patterns.
Recent checks
| When | Result | HTTP | Time | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 h ago | Passed | 402 | 517 ms | $0.02 |
| 23 h ago | Expected HTTP 402, got 530 | 530 | 141 ms | - |
| 35 h ago | Passed | 402 | 545 ms | $0.02 |
| 2 days ago | Expected HTTP 402, got 530 | 530 | 148 ms | - |
| 2 days ago | Passed | 402 | 530 ms | $0.02 |
Show 10 older checks
| 3 days ago | Passed | 402 | 621 ms | $0.02 |
| 3 days ago | Passed | 402 | 519 ms | $0.02 |
| 5 days ago | Expected HTTP 402, got 530 | 530 | 113 ms | - |
| 5 days ago | Expected HTTP 402, got 502 | 502 | 3.4 s | - |
| 5 days ago | Expected HTTP 402, got 530 | 530 | 203 ms | - |
| 5 days ago | Expected HTTP 402, got 530 | 530 | 159 ms | - |
| 5 days ago | Passed | 402 | 241 ms | $0.02 |
| 5 days ago | Passed | 402 | 606 ms | $0.02 |
| 6 days ago | Passed | 402 | 555 ms | $0.02 |
| 6 days ago | Passed | 402 | 536 ms | $0.02 |