62trust / 100

Gamblers Ruin

by Probability Calculators in Markets & finance

x402 APIPassing, checked 10 h ago

Gambler's ruin: probability of going broke before hitting a target, and expected number of bets, for repeated unit bets.

GET
https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin
Price
$0.02
per call in USDC
Uptime
66.7%
last 30 days
Response time
536 ms
871 ms slowest 5%
Last check
Passed
10 h ago, next any minute now

Run a free test callHow to call it

Reliability

All checks passedSome failedAll failedNot checked

Status and outage history · Atom feed · Watch with other listings

How to call it

GET https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin

Each call costs $0.02 in USDC on Polygon, paid with the request over x402.

Run a free test callOne unpaid request, the way an agent sends it. You see the payment challenge it gets back. Nothing is charged.

Example request

From the listing.

GET https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin?bankroll=100&p=0.473684&target=200

Parameters

ParameterTypeRequiredDescription
bankrollintegerYesStarting units, 1 to 1000000
pnumberYesProbability of winning each bet, 0 to 1 (roulette red/black on a double-zero wheel 18/38 = 0.473684)
targetintegerNoStop when you reach this many units (omit to play until ruin)

Example response

The provider's example. We can't check it without paying.

{
  "asOf": "2026-10-11T14:44:18.160Z",
  "bankroll": 100,
  "degraded": false,
  "disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
  "expectedBets": 1899.8838788165003,
  "lossProbability": 0.526316,
  "notChecked": [
    "bets of different sizes, betting systems, and table limits (the walk is one unit up or down per bet)",
    "ties or pushes",
    "…2 more"
  ],
  "ratioQOverP": 1.111112049383133,
  "reasons": [
    "With a target N, ruin = ((q/p)^i - (q/p)^N) / (1 - (q/p)^N), and 1 - i/N when the game is fair.",
    "A game with a house edge makes a larger target MORE likely to end in ruin, not less."
  ],
  "ruinProbability": 0.9999734415493503,
  "source": "computed locally (Feller, gambler's ruin)",
  "successProbability": 0.000026558450649694088,
  "summary": "Win chance 0.473684 per bet, bankroll 100, target 200: probability of ruin 99.9973%, reaching the target 0.0027%, expected 1,899.9 bets.",
  "target": 200,
  "verdict": "UNFAVOURABLE",
  "winProbability": 0.473684
}

Call it from code

The curl command shows the payment challenge. The JavaScript and Python versions pay and call, and never pay more than $0.02.

curl: see the payment challenge
# bash or zsh: see the payment challenge. Nothing is charged.
curl -sS -g -i 'https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin?bankroll=100&p=0.473684&target=200'

# x402 v2 sends the challenge base64-encoded in the PAYMENT-REQUIRED header (v1 sends it in the body).
# To read the header:
curl -sS -g -o /dev/null -D - 'https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin?bankroll=100&p=0.473684&target=200' \
  | grep -i '^payment-required:' | cut -d' ' -f2 | tr -d '\r' | base64 --decode
JavaScript: pay and call
// npm i @x402/fetch @x402/evm viem
import { wrapFetchWithPayment, x402Client } from "@x402/fetch";
import { registerExactEvmScheme } from "@x402/evm/exact/client";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";

// Pays at most $0.02 per call.
const client = new x402Client().setSpendControls({ maxAmountPerPayment: "$0.02" });
registerExactEvmScheme(client, { signer: privateKeyToAccount(process.env.EVM_PRIVATE_KEY) });
const pay = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, client);

// Not sure it's safe to pay? ToolVet checks it first for $0.005. Pay for that from a separate
// client: this one is capped at $0.02 per payment. GET https://toolvet.app/api/v1/check?url=https%3A%2F%2Fprobability-calc.x402tookit.com%2Fgamblers-ruin
const res = await pay("https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin?bankroll=100&p=0.473684&target=200");
console.log(res.status, await res.text());
Python: pay and call
# pip install "x402[requests,evm]"
import os
from eth_account import Account
from x402 import x402ClientSync
from x402.http.clients import x402_requests
from x402.mechanisms.evm import EthAccountSigner
from x402.mechanisms.evm.exact.register import register_exact_evm_client

# Pays at most $0.02 per call.
client = x402ClientSync().set_spend_controls({"max_amount_per_payment": "$0.02"})
register_exact_evm_client(client, EthAccountSigner(Account.from_key(os.environ["EVM_PRIVATE_KEY"])))

with x402_requests(client) as session:
    res = session.get("https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin?bankroll=100&p=0.473684&target=200")
    print(res.status_code, res.text)

Security scan

No findings

We scan names, descriptions and tool definitions for hidden instructions and other prompt-injection patterns.

Recent checks

WhenResultHTTPTimePrice
10 h agoPassed402517 ms$0.02
23 h agoExpected HTTP 402, got 530530141 ms-
35 h agoPassed402545 ms$0.02
2 days agoExpected HTTP 402, got 530530148 ms-
2 days agoPassed402530 ms$0.02
Show 10 older checks
3 days agoPassed402621 ms$0.02
3 days agoPassed402519 ms$0.02
5 days agoExpected HTTP 402, got 530530113 ms-
5 days agoExpected HTTP 402, got 5025023.4 s-
5 days agoExpected HTTP 402, got 530530203 ms-
5 days agoExpected HTTP 402, got 530530159 ms-
5 days agoPassed402241 ms$0.02
5 days agoPassed402606 ms$0.02
6 days agoPassed402555 ms$0.02
6 days agoPassed402536 ms$0.02