Implied Prob Btc
by Kronos Crypto Data & Forecasts in Markets & finance
Options-implied probability that BTC or ETH is above each given price at a target time, from the Deribit option book (skew-inclusive call-spread digitals): the options market's fair value for Kalshi/Polymarket crypto threshold contracts, not a forecast. Query: strikes=85000,90000 (up to 25), at=ISO time or Unix. $0.02 USDC via x402.
https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btc- Price
- $0.02
- per call in USDC
- Uptime
- 100%
- last 30 days
- Response time
- 235 ms
- 402 ms slowest 5%
- Last check
- Passed
- 2 h ago, next any minute now
Reliability
Status and outage history · Atom feed · Watch with other listings
How to call it
GET https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btc
Each call costs $0.02 in USDC on Base, paid with the request over x402.
Run a free test callOne unpaid request, the way an agent sends it. You see the payment challenge it gets back. Nothing is charged.
Example request
From the listing.
GET https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btcExample response
The provider's example. We can't check it without paying.
Example response, 41 lines
{
"as_of": "2026-01-01T14:42:00.000Z",
"asset": "BTC-USD",
"available": true,
"disclaimer": "Options-market data, informational only. Not a forecast and not financial advice.",
"expiries_used": [
{
"expires_at": "2026-01-02T08:00:00.000Z",
"expiry": "2JAN26",
"weight": 1
}
],
"forward_at_target": 60214.8,
"hours_to_target": 17.3,
"index_price": 60210.5,
"ladder": [
{
"extrapolated": false,
"iv_at_strike_pct": 47.1,
"probability_above": 0.7412,
"probability_below": 0.2588,
"strike": 59000
},
{
"extrapolated": false,
"iv_at_strike_pct": 44.8,
"probability_above": 0.5301,
"probability_below": 0.4699,
"strike": 60000
},
{
"extrapolated": false,
"iv_at_strike_pct": 43.9,
"probability_above": 0.3122,
"probability_below": 0.6878,
"strike": 61000
}
],
"source": "deribit",
"target_time": "2026-01-02T08:00:00.000Z"
}Call it from code
The curl command shows the payment challenge. The JavaScript and Python versions pay and call, and never pay more than $0.02.
curl: see the payment challenge
# bash or zsh: see the payment challenge. Nothing is charged.
curl -sS -g -i 'https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btc'
# x402 v2 sends the challenge base64-encoded in the PAYMENT-REQUIRED header (v1 sends it in the body).
# To read the header:
curl -sS -g -o /dev/null -D - 'https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btc' \
| grep -i '^payment-required:' | cut -d' ' -f2 | tr -d '\r' | base64 --decodeJavaScript: pay and call
// npm i @x402/fetch @x402/evm viem
import { wrapFetchWithPayment, x402Client } from "@x402/fetch";
import { registerExactEvmScheme } from "@x402/evm/exact/client";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";
// Pays at most $0.02 per call.
const client = new x402Client().setSpendControls({ maxAmountPerPayment: "$0.02" });
registerExactEvmScheme(client, { signer: privateKeyToAccount(process.env.EVM_PRIVATE_KEY) });
const pay = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, client);
// Not sure it's safe to pay? ToolVet checks it first for $0.005. Pay for that from a separate
// client: this one is capped at $0.02 per payment. GET https://toolvet.app/api/v1/check?url=https%3A%2F%2Fkronossignals.com%2Fapi%2Fv1%2Fimplied-prob%2Fbtc
const res = await pay("https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btc");
console.log(res.status, await res.text());Python: pay and call
# pip install "x402[requests,evm]"
import os
from eth_account import Account
from x402 import x402ClientSync
from x402.http.clients import x402_requests
from x402.mechanisms.evm import EthAccountSigner
from x402.mechanisms.evm.exact.register import register_exact_evm_client
# Pays at most $0.02 per call.
client = x402ClientSync().set_spend_controls({"max_amount_per_payment": "$0.02"})
register_exact_evm_client(client, EthAccountSigner(Account.from_key(os.environ["EVM_PRIVATE_KEY"])))
with x402_requests(client) as session:
res = session.get("https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btc")
print(res.status_code, res.text)Security scan
No findings
We scan names, descriptions and tool definitions for hidden instructions and other prompt-injection patterns.
Recent checks
| When | Result | HTTP | Time | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 h ago | Passed | 402 | 283 ms | $0.02 |
| 6 h ago | Passed | 402 | 279 ms | $0.02 |
| 10 h ago | Passed | 402 | 279 ms | $0.02 |
| 14 h ago | Passed | 402 | 278 ms | $0.02 |
| 18 h ago | Passed | 402 | 266 ms | $0.02 |
Show 10 older checks
| 22 h ago | Passed | 402 | 277 ms | $0.02 |
| 26 h ago | Passed | 402 | 225 ms | $0.02 |
| 30 h ago | Passed | 402 | 235 ms | $0.02 |
| 35 h ago | Passed | 402 | 832 ms | $0.02 |
| 39 h ago | Passed | 402 | 225 ms | $0.02 |
| 43 h ago | Passed | 402 | 391 ms | $0.02 |
| 47 h ago | Passed | 402 | 283 ms | $0.02 |
| 2 days ago | Passed | 402 | 233 ms | $0.02 |
| 2 days ago | Passed | 402 | 243 ms | $0.02 |
| 2 days ago | Passed | 402 | 213 ms | $0.02 |