Kelly

{
  "asOf": "2026-10-12T00:57:39.833Z",
  "degraded": false,
  "disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
  "educationalOnly": "Educational arithmetic on the numbers you supplied. Not investment advice: it does not say what to buy, sell, hold or how much to risk, and a supplied or past series does not predict the future.",
  "expectedValuePerUnitStaked": 0.2,
  "formulaValue": 0.2,
  "fullKelly": 0.2,
  "gainFraction": 1,
  "growthRateAtHalfKelly": 0.01504190162,
  "growthRateAtKelly": 0.02013551355,
  "halfKelly": 0.1,
  "lossFraction": 1,
  "notChecked": [
    "NOT ADVICE: the formula assumes your probability and payoff are exactly right and repeat independently, which is almost never true; small errors in p make full Kelly far too aggressive",
    "ruin, drawdowns, taxes, fees, liquidity and your own circumstances",
    "…1 more"
  ],
  "oddsBreakEvenProbability": 0.5,
  "overbetThresholdStake": 0.3893906833,
  "reasons": [
    "Kelly fraction f* = p/a - (1 - p)/b maximises expected log growth for repeated independent bets with exactly these stated odds.",
    "Expected log growth per bet at stake x is p*ln(1 + b*x) + (1 - p)*ln(1 - a*x).",
    "…2 more"
  ],
  "source": "computed locally",
  "summary": "Stated edge (p 0.6, win 1, lose 1): full Kelly fraction 0.2 of the bankroll; expected log growth 0.02013551355 per bet. Arithmetic only, not advice.",
  "verdict": "KELLY_POSITIVE_EDGE",
  "winProbability": 0.6
}

# bash or zsh: see the payment challenge. Nothing is charged.
curl -sS -g -i 'https://portfolio-stats.x402tookit.com/kelly?b=1&p=0.6'

# x402 v2 sends the challenge base64-encoded in the PAYMENT-REQUIRED header (v1 sends it in the body).
# To read the header:
curl -sS -g -o /dev/null -D - 'https://portfolio-stats.x402tookit.com/kelly?b=1&p=0.6' \
  | grep -i '^payment-required:' | cut -d' ' -f2 | tr -d '\r' | base64 --decode

// npm i @x402/fetch @x402/evm viem
import { wrapFetchWithPayment, x402Client } from "@x402/fetch";
import { registerExactEvmScheme } from "@x402/evm/exact/client";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";

// Pays at most $0.02 per call.
const client = new x402Client().setSpendControls({ maxAmountPerPayment: "$0.02" });
registerExactEvmScheme(client, { signer: privateKeyToAccount(process.env.EVM_PRIVATE_KEY) });
const pay = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, client);

// Not sure it's safe to pay? ToolVet checks it first for $0.005. Pay for that from a separate
// client: this one is capped at $0.02 per payment. GET https://toolvet.app/api/v1/check?url=https%3A%2F%2Fportfolio-stats.x402tookit.com%2Fkelly
const res = await pay("https://portfolio-stats.x402tookit.com/kelly?b=1&p=0.6");
console.log(res.status, await res.text());

# pip install "x402[requests,evm]"
import os
from eth_account import Account
from x402 import x402ClientSync
from x402.http.clients import x402_requests
from x402.mechanisms.evm import EthAccountSigner
from x402.mechanisms.evm.exact.register import register_exact_evm_client

# Pays at most $0.02 per call.
client = x402ClientSync().set_spend_controls({"max_amount_per_payment": "$0.02"})
register_exact_evm_client(client, EthAccountSigner(Account.from_key(os.environ["EVM_PRIVATE_KEY"])))

with x402_requests(client) as session:
    res = session.get("https://portfolio-stats.x402tookit.com/kelly?b=1&p=0.6")
    print(res.status_code, res.text)