Probability

{
  "data": {
    "category": "economics",
    "divergence": 0.0095,
    "last_move_1h": -0.001,
    "per_venue": [
      {
        "implied_p": 0.7359,
        "liquidity_score": 0.947,
        "market_id": "KXFEDRATECUT2026",
        "venue": "kalshi",
        "volume_24h_usd": 204455.43
      },
      {
        "implied_p": 0.7264,
        "liquidity_score": 0.98,
        "market_id": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
        "venue": "polymarket",
        "volume_24h_usd": 249729.17
      }
    ],
    "probability": 0.7301,
    "question": "Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
    "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the target range upper bound is lowered at the Sep 15–16 meeting.",
    "resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
    "slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09"
  },
  "meta": {
    "data_mode": "live",
    "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.get",
    "endpoint": "/v1/probability/{slug}",
    "freshness": "realtime",
    "generated_at": "2026-09-29T05:40:59.299Z",
    "request_id": "req_00000000",
    "sources": [
      "kalshi",
      "polymarket"
    ],
    "version": "1.0.0"
  }
}

# bash or zsh: see the payment challenge. Nothing is charged.
curl -sS -g -i 'https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/:slug'

# x402 v2 sends the challenge base64-encoded in the PAYMENT-REQUIRED header (v1 sends it in the body).
# To read the header:
curl -sS -g -o /dev/null -D - 'https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/:slug' \
  | grep -i '^payment-required:' | cut -d' ' -f2 | tr -d '\r' | base64 --decode

// npm i @x402/fetch @x402/evm viem
import { wrapFetchWithPayment, x402Client } from "@x402/fetch";
import { registerExactEvmScheme } from "@x402/evm/exact/client";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";

// Pays at most $0.02 per call.
const client = new x402Client().setSpendControls({ maxAmountPerPayment: "$0.02" });
registerExactEvmScheme(client, { signer: privateKeyToAccount(process.env.EVM_PRIVATE_KEY) });
const pay = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, client);

// Not sure it's safe to pay? ToolVet checks it first for $0.005. Pay for that from a separate
// client: this one is capped at $0.02 per payment. GET https://toolvet.app/api/v1/check?url=https%3A%2F%2Fx402-factory.com%2Fv1%2Fprobability%2F%3Aslug
const res = await pay("https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/:slug");
console.log(res.status, await res.text());

# pip install "x402[requests,evm]"
import os
from eth_account import Account
from x402 import x402ClientSync
from x402.http.clients import x402_requests
from x402.mechanisms.evm import EthAccountSigner
from x402.mechanisms.evm.exact.register import register_exact_evm_client

# Pays at most $0.02 per call.
client = x402ClientSync().set_spend_controls({"max_amount_per_payment": "$0.02"})
register_exact_evm_client(client, EthAccountSigner(Account.from_key(os.environ["EVM_PRIVATE_KEY"])))

with x402_requests(client) as session:
    res = session.get("https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/:slug")
    print(res.status_code, res.text)