Resolution Risk

{
  "asOf": "2026-08-31T11:03:16.092Z",
  "byCategory": [
    {
      "category": "Geopolitics",
      "disputeInsufficientSample": false,
      "disputeRatePctChronological": 2.3,
      "disputeRatePctHighVolume": 35.2,
      "elevated": true,
      "flipInsufficientSample": false,
      "flipRatePct": 8,
      "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 119,
      "lockupHoursPerMarket": 42
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "SHOWCASE, NOT THE PAID RESPONSE: what you see is one category row of the base-rate table. byCategory is cut to 1 of the 6 rows this response carried. clarity and flipOverall are the aggregate over the whole response, so they are null here and populated in a paid response. Nothing is masked or invented: every value is a dated measurement, kept so you can read the shape, the units and the field semantics. The schema published beside it is complete; a paid call returns the complete set.",
    "EXAMPLE ONLY: a paid response captured from api.polym.uk on 2026-09-01, then frozen. A live response carries its own asOf and current values.",
    "Category BASE RATE, not a forecast for any specific market. On-chain and Gamma fact, not an accusation.",
    "Dispute: two samples. The absolute figure varies several-fold; the signal is the relative RANK. Flip and clarity cells are small and directional, and insufficientSample is flagged when so.",
    "Category is a title heuristic and 'Other' is the residual bucket. DVM vote concentration is deferred: cited from press coverage, not recomputed here."
  ],
  "clarity": null,
  "dataDegraded": false,
  "elevatedRiskCategories": [
    "Geopolitics"
  ],
  "flipAsOf": "2026-08-31T11:56:03.265Z",
  "flipOverall": null,
  "howToRead": "TWO axes per category: dispute (how often markets like this are disputed at UMA) by flip (when disputed, how often the outcome REVERSES). Flip often INVERTS the dispute ranking. clarity: a title that states a checkable threshold is disputed less often than one that does not, and this is orthogonal to category. Read from the TITLE only; the resolution rules are not read."
}

# bash or zsh: see the payment challenge. Nothing is charged.
curl -sS -g -i 'https://api.polym.uk/resolution-risk'

# x402 v2 sends the challenge base64-encoded in the PAYMENT-REQUIRED header (v1 sends it in the body).
# To read the header:
curl -sS -g -o /dev/null -D - 'https://api.polym.uk/resolution-risk' \
  | grep -i '^payment-required:' | cut -d' ' -f2 | tr -d '\r' | base64 --decode

// npm i @x402/fetch @x402/evm viem
import { wrapFetchWithPayment, x402Client } from "@x402/fetch";
import { registerExactEvmScheme } from "@x402/evm/exact/client";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";

// Pays at most $0.05 per call.
const client = new x402Client().setSpendControls({ maxAmountPerPayment: "$0.05" });
registerExactEvmScheme(client, { signer: privateKeyToAccount(process.env.EVM_PRIVATE_KEY) });
const pay = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, client);

// Not sure it's safe to pay? ToolVet checks it first for $0.005. Pay for that from a separate
// client: this one is capped at $0.05 per payment. GET https://toolvet.app/api/v1/check?url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.polym.uk%2Fresolution-risk
const res = await pay("https://api.polym.uk/resolution-risk");
console.log(res.status, await res.text());

# pip install "x402[requests,evm]"
import os
from eth_account import Account
from x402 import x402ClientSync
from x402.http.clients import x402_requests
from x402.mechanisms.evm import EthAccountSigner
from x402.mechanisms.evm.exact.register import register_exact_evm_client

# Pays at most $0.05 per call.
client = x402ClientSync().set_spend_controls({"max_amount_per_payment": "$0.05"})
register_exact_evm_client(client, EthAccountSigner(Account.from_key(os.environ["EVM_PRIVATE_KEY"])))

with x402_requests(client) as session:
    res = session.get("https://api.polym.uk/resolution-risk")
    print(res.status_code, res.text)