75trust / 100

Trackrecord Luck

by manylives.me in Markets & finance

x402 APIPassing, checked 14 min ago

Is a trading strategy's record skill or luck? Its hit rate against a coin flip (z-score and p-value), the same p-value adjusted for every strategy tested in its book (Holm), how it ranks against the book's coin-flip strategies, and how many more calls it would need to be significant. Historical, scored periods only; general information, not advice.

GET https://manylives.me/paid/trackrecord/luck

Last 30 days

All checks passedSome failedAll failedNot checked
Uptime
100%
Response time
423 ms typical, 571 ms slowest 5%
Last check
14 min ago
Next check
in 16 min

How to call it

# bash or zsh: see the payment challenge (nothing is charged)
curl -g -i -X GET 'https://manylives.me/paid/trackrecord/luck?id=CRY-5m-001'
import { wrapFetchWithPayment } from "@x402/fetch";
import { x402Client } from "@x402/core/client";
import { ExactEvmScheme } from "@x402/evm/exact/client";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";

const client = new x402Client().register(
  "eip155:8453",
  new ExactEvmScheme(privateKeyToAccount(process.env.AGENT_KEY)),
);
const pay = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, client);

// Not sure it's safe to pay? Preflight it first for $0.005:
// GET https://toolvet.app/api/v1/check?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmanylives.me%2Fpaid%2Ftrackrecord%2Fluck
const res = await pay("https://manylives.me/paid/trackrecord/luck?id=CRY-5m-001");
console.log(await res.json());

Example input

{
  "id": "CRY-5m-001"
}

Example output

{
  "calls": 2400,
  "hit_rate": 0.523,
  "holm_adjusted_p": 0.9,
  "id": "CRY-1h-042",
  "p_value_one_sided": 0.012,
  "verdict": "looks good on its own, but could be luck once you allow for how many strategies were tested",
  "window": "all time"
}

Security scan

  • No findings. We scan names, descriptions and tool definitions for hidden instructions and other prompt-injection patterns.

Recent checks

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